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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(11:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 34 for 8 yards (38-J.Adjei-Barimah).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model