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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model