4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to SF 13, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.52 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP