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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to SF 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.55 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model