Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-43-P.Barber, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TB 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model