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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 19-R.Aguayo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model