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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to TB 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-36-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model