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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

HOU
33.2%
MIN
66.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.252 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Brock Osweiler (HOU): -0.007 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

HOU

Stephen Anderson TE Out Hamstring
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Ankle
Duane Brown T Questionable Knee
Kareem Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
David Morgan TE Out Knee
Andre Smith T Out Elbow
Stefon Diggs WR Doubtful Groin
Rhett Ellison TE Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
MIN 31

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:29 TD MIN (11:29) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:33 TD MIN (6:33) (Run formation) 62-N.Easton reported in as eligible. 44-M.Asiata up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 13
  • Q2 10:01 FG MIN (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. HOU 0 – MIN 17
  • Q2 09:05 TD MIN (9:05) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIN 23
  • Q2 05:46 FG HOU (5:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – MIN 24
  • Q2 01:41 FG HOU (1:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 6 – MIN 24
  • Q4 14:14 TD MIN (14:14) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 84-C.Patterson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – MIN 30
  • Q4 03:48 TD HOU (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – MIN 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:30) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 12 yards (53-M.Bullough).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:13) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on MIN-94-J.Trattou, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIN 16.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 55 yards to HOU 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 34-T.Ervin to MIN 38 for 18 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 71%

    (1:21) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:05) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (5:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to HOU 46, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (1:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 21 for 9 yards (36-K.Dillon).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (7:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 57%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 35 for 4 yards (99-D.Hunter; 97-E.Griffen).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 25 for 14 yards (59-E.Lamur; 26-T.Waynes).