4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.80 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.95 EP