Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Houston Texans 3

(3:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to HOU 46, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model