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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 39

Houston Texans 6 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 35 for 4 yards (99-D.Hunter; 97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP