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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model