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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 25 for 14 yards (59-E.Lamur; 26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP