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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 33

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model