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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 30 for 14 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on MIN-94-J.Trattou, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at MIN 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model