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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 35-M.Sherels for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model