4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DAL
55.8%
SF
44.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.114 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.323 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: -0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
SF 21
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DAL

La'el Collins G Out Toe
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Shoulder
Doug Free T Questionable Quadricep
Andrew Gachkar LB Questionable Neck
Jeff Heath S Questionable Knee
Mark Nzeocha LB Questionable Achilles
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Hamstring

SF

Jimmie Ward CB Out Quadricep
Garrett Celek TE Questionable Back
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 24
–
SF 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:49 TD SF (6:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left to 17-J.Kerley for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at DAL 16. 16-yds YAC DAL 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 14:02 TD SF (14:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 03:04 TD DAL (3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – SF 14
  • Q2 00:16 TD DAL (:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-B.Butler for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Line Judge - Tom Stephan (68) injured on the play. DAL 13 – SF 14
  • Q3 12:23 FG SF (12:23) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. DAL 14 – SF 17
  • Q3 01:11 TD DAL (1:11) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – SF 17
  • Q4 04:15 FG DAL (4:15) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 24 – SF 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

    (10:25) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:12) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to SF 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-25-L.Dunbar. San Francisco challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-C.Jones punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:47) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to SF 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to DAL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 11 yards (51-G.Hodges).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 26 yards to DAL 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (12:23) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%

    (8:55) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 65 yards to DAL 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for 14 yards (36-D.Johnson, 56-S.Skov).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:05) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to SF 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 45 for 26 yards (6-C.Jones).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (4:15) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith pushed ob at DAL 32 for 3 yards (24-M.Claiborne). Caught at DAL 32. 0-yds YAC