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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith pushed ob at DAL 32 for 3 yards (24-M.Claiborne). Caught at DAL 32. 0-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP