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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 26 yards to DAL 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model