Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 21 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(11:05) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to SF 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 45 for 26 yards (6-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.45 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model