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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP