Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-C.Jones punts 62 yards to SF 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-25-L.Dunbar. San Francisco challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-C.Jones punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model