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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP