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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to DAL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 11 yards (51-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model