Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Dallas Cowboys 14

(7:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 65 yards to DAL 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for 14 yards (36-D.Johnson, 56-S.Skov).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model