CHI @ DAL — 4th & Data

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Dallas Cowboys

2-1 HC Jason Garrett

Sunday 2016-09-25 · 20:30 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI

41.7%

DAL

58.3%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

DAL offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.229 vs Brian Hoyer (CHI) -0.000 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Brian Hoyer in place of Jay Cutler)
DAL defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
CHI defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21 14–28

–

DAL 24 17–31

Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Danny Trevathan LB Out Thumb

Ka'Deem Carey RB Doubtful Hamstring

Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb

Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle

Bobby Massie T Questionable Toe

Josh Sitton G Questionable Shoulder

Will Sutton DT Questionable Elbow

Adrian Amos S Questionable Concussion

Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Concussion

Kyle Fuller CB Questionable Knee

Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Knee

Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee

Chris Prosinski S Questionable Calf

Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

DAL

Tony Romo QB Out Back

Charles Tapper DE Out Back

Mark Nzeocha LB Doubtful Achilles

Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Hamstring

Jack Crawford DE Questionable Shoulder

Doug Free T Questionable Quadricep

Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17

–

DAL 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:45 TD DAL (9:45) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 6
Q1 01:59 FG DAL (1:59) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. CHI 0 – DAL 10
Q2 11:16 TD DAL (11:16) 25-L.Dunbar left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 16
Q2 07:52 FG CHI (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DAL 17
Q2 00:43 TD DAL (:43) (Shotgun) 46-A.Morris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – DAL 23
Q3 07:14 TD CHI (7:14) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DAL 24
Q4 09:09 TD DAL (9:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post. CHI 10 – DAL 30
Q4 06:35 TD CHI (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 86-Z.Miller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 24

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 86%

(10:34) 21-E.Elliott right end pushed ob at CHI 19 for 5 yards (21-T.Porter).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DAL 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

(1:59) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(13:15) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 3 yards (58-J.Anderson). Injury update: La'el Collins has a foot sprain and will not return to the game.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

(7:14) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 69%

(5:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal to CHI 24 for 9 yards (45-R.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 24.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 79%

(3:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

(:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to DAL 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

(4:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to CHI 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 16 for 8 yards (31-B.Jones).
See the full breakdown →

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