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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:59) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model