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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 2

Chicago Bears 3 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model