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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model