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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 16

Chicago Bears 0 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model