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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model