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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 71

Chicago Bears 3 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 3 yards (58-J.Anderson). Injury update: La'el Collins has a foot sprain and will not return to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model