4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal to CHI 24 for 9 yards (45-R.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP