Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Chicago Bears 17

(1:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 16 for 8 yards (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model