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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

BAL
40.0%
JAX
60.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BAL

Kenneth Dixon RB Out Knee
Elvis Dumervil LB Questionable Foot
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Foot
John Urschel G Questionable Shoulder

JAX

Kelvin Beachum T Out Concussion
Ben Koyack TE Out Knee
Prince Amukamara CB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Linder G Questionable Knee
Jared Odrick DE Questionable Triceps
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Not Injury Related
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 19
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 TD BAL (4:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 11:11 FG BAL (11:11) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:00 FG BAL (:00) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – JAX 7
  • Q3 10:24 FG BAL (10:24) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – JAX 7
  • Q3 05:09 TD JAX (5:09) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 15-A.Robinson. Jacksonville challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – JAX 13
  • Q4 07:29 FG JAX (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. BAL 16 – JAX 17
  • Q4 01:07 FG BAL (1:07) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 19 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:07) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:56) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 40 for -2 yards (36-T.Young). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.House, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:04) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (11:11) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:50) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-36-T.Young, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BAL 16.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:00) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to BAL 37 for 42 yards (41-A.Levine).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (10:24) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:33) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 25 for -3 yards (39-M.Canady).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 38%

    (14:57) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 19 for 6 yards (36-T.Young).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:11) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-16-D.Robinson at BAL 39. 16-D.Robinson to BAL 39 for no gain (14-D.Hester).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

    (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 64%

    (3:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-B.Urban), Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by BAL-54-Z.Orr at BAL 34. 54-Z.Orr to BAL 43 for 9 yards (93-T.Alualu).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 26%

    (2:14) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 89-S.Smith to JAX 44 for 5 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 62%

    (1:07) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.