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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 25 for -3 yards (39-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model