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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 40 for -2 yards (36-T.Young). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.House, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.24 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP