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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model