Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(14:07) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.24 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model