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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model