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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-36-T.Young, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BAL 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model