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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model