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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model