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HC Pete Carroll
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

SEA
69.8%
LA
30.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Case Keenum (LA) -0.061 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.282 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
LA 19
Projected margin: SEA by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Germain Ifedi G Out Ankle
Nick Vannett TE Out Ankle
J'Marcus Webb T Questionable Ankle
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Wrist

LA

E.J. Gaines CB Out Thigh
Nelson Spruce WR Out Knee
Pharoh Cooper WR Doubtful Shoulder
Michael Brockers DT Questionable Thigh
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 3
–
LA 9

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG LA (10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 14:48 FG SEA (14:48) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 01:08 FG LA (1:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 3 – LA 6
  • Q4 14:15 FG LA (14:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 3 – LA 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (14:48) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 23, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-T.Austin to LA 38 for 15 yards (40-T.Powell).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 22%

    (9:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (4:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (1:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (11:03) 9-J.Ryan to SEA 36 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 36. 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to LA 5, downed by SEA-40-T.Powell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 28%

    (6:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to LA 13, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (14:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to LA 32, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for no gain (35-D.Shead).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:41) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to LA 21, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-T.Austin to LA 21 for no gain (23-S.Terrell). PENALTY on LA-46-C.Harkey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 21.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to SEA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.