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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model