Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.16 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP

KICK -1.51 EP

28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model