Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(6:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 25-R.Sherman.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.82 EP
79% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP

KICK -1.30 EP

28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model