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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 9-J.Ryan to SEA 36 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 36. 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to LA 5, downed by SEA-40-T.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP