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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP