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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model